Ethiopia: The Implications of Invasion
As the world’s gaze was fixed on the U.S. Election, Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, declared war. Barely a year on from being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy’s actions risk plunging Ethiopia, and perhaps the entire Horn of Africa, into a devastating and intractable war.
Prime Minister Abiy began his tenure in 2018 with a refreshingly reconciliatory approach – ending the war with Eritrea, releasing thousands of political prisoners, and advocating for national unity. However, in recent months the ‘peace and reconciliation platform’ that the Norwegian Nobel Committee commended so highly has been corrosively undermined.
Why has war been declared on Tigray?
In Abiy Ahmed’s statement to the nation on November 3rd, he asserted that ‘force is being used as the last measure to save the people and the country’, citing a ‘red line’ that the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had crossed. This was, he alleged, a response to an as yet unsubstantiated attack on an Ethiopian army base in Tigray.
In reality, the war is a culmination of steadily rising tensions between Abiy's government and Tigrayan politicians. The small northern region, which contains around 6% of the Ethiopian population, has historically dominated Ethiopian politics.
Since Abiy's ascension to power, however, the influence of the TPLF has rapidly declined. Abiy’s insistence on increasing federal control and curtailing the power of regional bodies - squarely antithetical to the TPLF's foundational ideology as a movement for Tigrayan autonomy – has driven a substantial wedge between the two parties.
Tensions reached breaking point recently, after Tigrayan leaders carried out elections in the region, pointedly ignoring the government's decision to postpone all elections as a result of the pandemic.
This flagrant dissent towards Abiy's regime and the implied rejection of his federal expansion has provoked Ahmed to take action. After fiscal sanctions failed to silence dissent, the Prime Minister sees war as his only alternative.
What impact will this have on Ethiopia?
Abiy’s decision to invade Tigray on 3 November means that the country is in a state of war. The struggle with Tigray is unlikely to be brief. The region is battle-hardened and highly militarised after its recent history of conflict. In addition, its mountainous terrain makes it extremely difficult to attack. This means that on the Tigrayan front, there could be prolonged conflict, lasting months or even years.
Even more worrying, however, is the prospect of a multidimensional war. Ethiopia is a deeply divided country, and unrest among ethnic and regional separatist groups has grown increasingly violent. Recent skirmishes involving militias from the Oromo and Amhara groups are particular causes for concern.
Conflict with Tigray could add fuel to the ideological fire of these movements, while also drawing the army away from ‘problem’ areas. If this separatist unrest becomes a full-fledged rebellion, Ethiopia may descend into chaos.
What are the geopolitical implications?
The declaration of war on Tigray could have dire geopolitical consequences. Peace in the Horn of Africa is far from stable, and rests on a delicate balance of alliances and interests. While Abiy Ahmed’s ascent to power marked perhaps the most positive step in recent history for the region, the decision to declare war could jeopardise this fragile state of affairs in a number of ways:
· Eritrean Involvement
Internationally, the most immediate geopolitical concern is the involvement of Eritrean troops. Tigray makes up about half of Eritrea’s southern border, and after 25 years of fighting over that border, there is no love lost between Eritreans and Tigrayans.
After last year’s peace agreement, Eritrea is allied with Ethiopia. Unsurprisingly, given their deep hatred of Tigray, they have jumped at the chance to participate in this offensive and already have committed troops.
At best, the internationalisation of the conflict increases both its scale and complexity.
At worst, Eritrea could use the war to pursue its own interests. They could, for instance, capitalise on Ethiopian infighting by moving to reclaim territory that they believe to be theirs. Such action would totally derail the fragile alliance between the two nations, reigniting an age-old conflict.
· The Destabilisation of Somalia
Equally crucial are the implications for Somalia, perhaps the region’s least stable power.
Full-scale conflict in Tigray, and any ensuing violence in other parts of the country, would engage the Ethiopian (and most likely Eritrean) armed forces. This spells bad news for the African Union’s mission in Somalia (AMISOM) - which relies on soldiers from both armies.
The consequences of withdrawals from Somalia could be catastrophic. Firstly, some analysts argue that the reduction of a military presence could ‘open the floodgates for al-Shabaab’. The increased activity of one of the world’s most developed terrorist groups is a clear regional and global threat.
Secondly, the de-securitisation of the Ogaden, in Eastern Ethiopia, could increase border tension between Ethiopia and Somalia and fuel yet another separatist movement, creating another Eastern front for the Ethiopian army to deal with.
· Sudan and Egypt
As with all regional conflicts, there is the potential for a number of different players to be dragged into the fighting. Dino Mahtani of Crisis Group points to the Sudanese as one potential entrant, arguing that various groups have ties to the Ethiopians, the Tigrayans and the Eritreans.
Another crucial dynamic could be the ongoing dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile in Northern Ethiopia. The Egyptians have not held back from expressing their opposition to the dam, which is seen as a move to control Egypt’s main water source.
Negotiations over the GERD, which involve Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia, restarted in October. If these begin to falter, Egypt could provide support to Tigray or other internal enemies of the government, in order to improve their own negotiating position.
Moving Forward
PM Abiy’s warmongering has put the security of millions is under threat. Sudanese authorities say they are already unable to cope with the vast numbers of refugees already crossing the border from Tigray.
Peace is on a knife-edge in Ethiopia and the wider region. Yet how has the international community responded? Mostly in silence.
For humanitarian, economic and security reasons, diplomatic intervention is needed, and it is needed as soon as possible.
At present, as one diplomat said, ‘international actors are too distracted by multiple crises’ elsewhere. If decisive diplomatic action is not taken immediately, suffering and displacement in the region will spiral out of control.
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