Another analysis of the crisis in Ethiopia, this time for Global Risk Insights, in which I consider the alternative paths which Ethiopia may follow in the coming months as elections approach. In summary, I argue that the Tigray crisis is but one of a host of deeply-rooted problems that are plaguing Abiy's government, and that a genuine inclusive dialogue process is required if there is to be any chance of stability in Ethiopia. The crucial moment for Abiy and his country will be the upcoming elections, slated for June 5. Either there will be a process of constitutional reform and compromise, in return for which opposition parties will uphold the legitimacy of the election, or Abiy will look to increase the scope of his authoritarianism, which will lead to widespread violence and collapse in a state that is far too large and diverse to support any unilateral centralisation of power.
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